FOMC decisions can move forex because markets reprice the expected path of U.S. interest rates and Treasury yields, not simply because the Federal Reserve raises, cuts or holds rates. A useful way to read an FOMC event is to compare the decision with what was already expected, then assess the statement, projections and press conference while allowing for wider spreads, slippage and sharp reversals around the event.

Current FOMC schedule check for UK traders

Item Verified information UK relevance
Next scheduled meeting 27-28 October 2026 Decision on 28 October.
Statement / decision time 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time 18:00 GMT on 28 October 2026.
Press conference 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time 18:30 GMT on 28 October 2026.
Following meeting 8-9 December 2026 Decision on 9 December; statement 19:00 GMT and press conference 19:30 GMT.
SEP / dot plot December meeting is marked with an asterisk on the Fed calendar The October meeting is not scheduled as an SEP meeting; December is.
Current target range 3.75%-4.00% after the 16 September 2026 decision Time-sensitive. Recheck after the October meeting.

Last checked: 7 October 2026. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar confirms the next scheduled meeting for 27-28 October 2026, with the decision on 28 October. The September 2026 FOMC statement set the current federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Future meeting dates remain tentative until confirmed by the preceding meeting. UK conversions are date-specific because British and U.S. daylight-saving changes do not always occur on the same dates.

What is the FOMC in forex?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Federal Reserve body responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy, including the target range for the federal funds rate. In forex, FOMC decisions matter because a change in the expected U.S. policy path can alter Treasury yields and relative returns, which can reprice the dollar against currencies such as the euro and pound.

Term What it means Why FX traders watch it
Target range The FOMC’s current range for the federal funds rate. Changes can alter short-term rate expectations and USD pricing.
Statement Policy decision plus the Committee’s economic and risk assessment. Changed wording can matter even when the rate is unchanged.
Implementation note Operational instructions used to implement the decision. Important for policy mechanics, but distinct from the policy statement.
Press conference The Chair explains the decision and answers questions. Can reinforce, qualify or change the initial market interpretation.
SEP / dot plot Participants’ projections for growth, unemployment, inflation and an appropriate policy rate path. Can shift expectations for future rates at selected meetings.

What is released on FOMC decision day?

Stage Typical timing What appears Main interpretation risk
Pre-meeting Before release Market pricing, analyst expectations and positioning Consensus is not certainty.
Decision + statement 2:00 p.m. ET Target-rate decision and statement; implementation note is also published The headline decision can match expectations while guidance surprises.
SEP meeting only With the decision package Summary of Economic Projections, including individual policy-rate projections The dots are individual views, not a binding Committee promise.
Press conference 2:30 p.m. ET Chair’s explanation and Q&A Later answers can soften or reinforce the first interpretation.
Post-event Minutes to hours later Yield and FX repricing continues The first move can reverse as liquidity normalises and details are digested.

Rate decision vs market expectation: why the surprise matters

The market does not react only to the announced rate. It reacts to the gap between the full information package and what was already priced. An unchanged decision can move the dollar if the statement or projected policy path becomes materially firmer or easier than expected.

Question What to compare Why it matters
Current decision Expected target range vs announced range Shows whether the headline decision surprised the market.
Forward path Expected future rates vs changed statement/projections Often matters more than a widely expected current decision.
Yields Short- and medium-term Treasury yields before and after release Shows how rate expectations are being repriced.
FX USD pairs before and after later event stages Helps separate the first reaction from the fuller interpretation.

What does hawkish or dovish mean after an FOMC meeting?

Signal Potentially hawkish reading Potentially dovish reading Caveat
Rate path Higher rates for longer than previously expected Lower or earlier rate path than previously expected Must be compared with prior pricing.
Statement tone Greater concern about inflation or less urgency to ease Greater concern about growth/employment or more openness to easing Words can conflict with projections.
SEP / dots Higher projected policy-rate distribution Lower projected policy-rate distribution Dots are individual participant projections.
Press conference Chair reinforces a restrictive interpretation Chair stresses flexibility or downside risks Q&A can change the first market read.

How the dot plot and summary of economic projections affect forex

The Federal Reserve guide to the Summary of Economic Projections explains that the SEP is published four times a year, in connection with the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings. The September 2026 projection materials show the current structure of participants’ projections for real GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and the policy rate they judge appropriate. The dot plot is therefore a distribution of individual views, not a single Committee forecast and not a promise about future policy.

  • Compare the new distribution and median with the previous SEP rather than focusing on one dot.
  • Check whether growth, unemployment or inflation projections moved in a way that changes the expected policy path.
  • Separate the current decision from the projected path several quarters ahead.
  • Treat the press conference as a separate information stage because the Chair can qualify how the Committee is interpreting the outlook.

How FOMC decisions move the U.S. dollar

A simplified transmission chain is: FOMC surprise or communication change -> expected policy path -> Treasury yields and rate differentials -> relative currency pricing. That chain is useful, but it is not deterministic. Real yields, growth expectations, positioning, risk sentiment and the other currency in the pair can reinforce or offset the USD move. For broader macro context, see our guide to fundamental analysis in forex.

Event interpretation Rates channel Possible FX channel Why it is not deterministic
More restrictive than expected Short-term yields may rise USD may strengthen relative to peers Growth concerns, positioning or foreign-rate expectations can offset the move.
Easier than expected Short-term yields may fall USD may weaken relative to peers Risk sentiment or stronger foreign weakness can change the relative result.
Mixed package Different parts of the yield curve may diverge Initial FX move may reverse or fragment Statement, dots and press conference can point in different directions.

FOMC and EUR/USD

EUR/USD is a two-sided relative price. FOMC communication affects the U.S. dollar leg through expected Fed policy and U.S. yields, while ECB expectations and euro-area conditions continue to affect the euro leg. A more restrictive Fed repricing can pressure EUR/USD if U.S. yields rise relative to euro-area yields, but that outcome is not guaranteed.

GBP/USD price action after FOMC

For UK traders, GBP/USD should also be read as a two-leg pair. FOMC information changes the USD side, while Bank of England expectations, UK data and sterling positioning affect the GBP side. Post-FOMC price action can evolve through several phases rather than one clean move.

Phase What the market is digesting Why GBP/USD can change direction
2:00 p.m. ET Rate decision and statement; SEP if scheduled Headline decision may match expectations while language surprises.
First minutes Treasury-yield repricing and order-book adjustment Thin liquidity and positioning can exaggerate the first move.
2:30 p.m. ET onward Press conference and Q&A The Chair can reinforce or qualify the initial interpretation.
Later session Full cross-market repricing plus UK/sterling factors Follow-through can differ from the immediate USD reaction.

What time is the FOMC decision in the UK?

The Federal Reserve normally schedules the FOMC statement for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time and the press conference for 2:30 p.m. ET. UK time must be converted for the specific date. According to the GOV.UK clock-change schedule, the UK has already returned to GMT by 28 October 2026 while the U.S. remains on daylight time, so the statement is at 18:00 GMT and the press conference at 18:30 GMT. For 9 December 2026, the statement is at 19:00 GMT and the press conference at 19:30 GMT.

How to read an FOMC event step by step

  1. Verify the official meeting date and release time on the Federal Reserve calendar, then convert that date to UK local time.
  2. Record the market expectation for the current decision and, separately, the expected path over the next several meetings.
  3. Compare the announced target range with what was expected before the release.
  4. Read the statement for changed wording on inflation, employment, growth, risk balance and the likely policy stance.
  5. At SEP meetings, compare the new projections and dot distribution with the previous SEP.
  6. Watch Treasury yields and the relevant USD pair before interpreting the first FX move.
  7. Reassess after the press conference instead of assuming the initial reaction will persist.

Worked example: why a rate hold can still move forex

Stage Hypothetical outcome Interpretation
Before meeting Market expects no rate change and a relatively easier policy path over the next year The current decision is largely priced in.
2:00 p.m. ET decision Rate is unchanged as expected Little surprise from the headline decision.
Statement / SEP Language is firmer and projected year-end policy rates are higher than previously expected Expected future rates reprice upward despite no current hike.
Rates reaction 2-year Treasury yield rises 12 basis points Short-rate expectations move in a more restrictive direction.
FX reaction EUR/USD falls 0.6% initially, then retraces to -0.2% after the press conference Later communication changes the interpretation of the first USD move.

These figures are hypothetical and are not typical-return estimates or a trading signal. The lesson is that “hold” does not mean “no impact”: markets trade the gap between prior expectations and the entire information package.

Why the first FOMC move can reverse

  • The rate decision can match consensus while the statement surprises.
  • The SEP can conflict with the initial read of the statement.
  • The press conference can clarify, soften or reinforce the earlier message.
  • Positioning and event-thinned liquidity can exaggerate the first move.
  • Different maturities of the Treasury curve can send conflicting signals.

FOMC news-trading risks

Phase What may change Risk to live execution
Before release Liquidity can thin and spreads can start to widen Quoted cost may differ from normal conditions.
Release seconds Prices can gap, spreads widen and orders may fill away from the trigger Slippage, partial fills or rejections may occur depending on broker arrangements.
Press conference A second information shock can reverse the first move Stops and leveraged exposure can be hit during rapid repricing.
Later session Liquidity may normalise but interpretation can keep changing The initial move is not proof of a stable directional edge.

Leverage magnifies both market moves and execution errors. Event-time spread costs can also differ materially from normal conditions. Candle-based backtests may miss event-level spread changes and fill quality, so simulated results should not be treated as evidence of live execution. FOMC events can produce fast, discontinuous price moves and materially different live execution from normal market conditions.

FOMC calendar and freshness checks

2026 meeting SEP? Status as of 7 Oct 2026
27-28 October No Scheduled; decision on 28 October.
8-9 December Yes Scheduled; December meeting marked as associated with the SEP.

For a live implementation, keep the schedule in a separately maintained module with a visible last-verified date. The schedule and target range above were rechecked on 7 October 2026. Do not hard-code the current target range, Chair comments or market-implied probabilities into evergreen copy without a timestamp and source.

What to check before the next FOMC event

  • Federal Reserve meeting date and exact release/press-conference time.
  • Correct UK time conversion for that specific date.
  • Whether the meeting includes an SEP and dot plot.
  • Market expectation for the current decision and the forward path, with provider and timestamp.
  • Your broker’s spread, order, stop and slippage terms around high-volatility events.
  • Your account leverage, position size and notional exposure before the event.
  • The full statement, yields and press conference before drawing a directional conclusion.
Live signals on Telegram

Turn Trading Calculations Into Real Trading Decisions

Use your calculated risk levels, position sizing, and technical analysis together with live forex trading signals and market commentary from The Forex Complex.

325,000+ traders inside the community
Join The Forex Complex Learn how it works
Wesley, Founder of TFXC - The Forex Complex
Wesley · Founder of TFXC

Frequently asked questions

What is the FOMC in forex?

The FOMC is the Federal Reserve committee responsible for U.S. monetary policy. Forex traders monitor its decisions because they can change expected U.S. interest rates, Treasury yields and the dollar’s relative value.

How do you trade FOMC news?

Treat FOMC as a high-volatility information event rather than a guaranteed signal. Compare the decision with prior expectations, then assess the statement, projections where available, Treasury yields and the press conference while accounting for spread and slippage risk.

What is the FOMC dot plot?

The dot plot shows individual FOMC participants’ projections for an appropriate federal funds rate at future points. It is not a binding Committee promise and should be compared with the previous distribution and current market pricing.

Does FOMC affect EUR/USD?

Yes. FOMC information can reprice the USD side of EUR/USD through U.S. rate and yield expectations. ECB expectations, euro-area data and risk sentiment can offset or reinforce the move.

Why can GBP/USD reverse after FOMC?

The initial reaction may reflect the headline decision, while later moves incorporate the statement, projections, Treasury yields and the press conference. Sterling-specific factors also continue to affect the pair.

What time is the FOMC decision in the UK?

The statement is normally scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET and the press conference for 2:30 p.m. ET. Convert each meeting date separately because U.S. and UK daylight-saving changes do not always align.

Is every FOMC meeting a dot-plot meeting?

No. The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections four times a year, at selected meetings. In 2026, the calendar marks March, June, September and December as SEP meetings.

Why can the dollar move even if the Fed holds rates?

A hold can still change the expected future policy path if the statement, projections or press conference are more hawkish or dovish than markets had priced in.